Biocon Biologics (BBL) launched Hulio, a biosimilars version of Abbvie’s blockbuster drug Humira, in the US, a market that is already getting crowded with several biosimilars.
Analysts, however, feel that together with upcoming Aspart (insulin) and vaccines, Hulio will help drive BBL’s revenues from the current $1 billion to around $1.65 billion by FY25.
The drug is indicated for Rheumatoid Arthritis, Psoriatic Arthritis, Crohn’s Disease, Ankylosing Spondylitis and Ulcerative Colitis, among others.
Humira is estimated to have $21-billion sales in 2022, and Abbvie has indicated that it expects 37 per cent drop in Humira sales with the onslaught of biosimilars.
BBL had earlier launched the biosimilar version of Humira (adalimumab) in the EU about five years back and in Canada around two years ago.
ICICI Direct said, in a May note, that Hulio has maintained its market share at 18.5 per cent in Germany and about 10 per cent in France. It has a 6 per cent market share in Canada.
In the US market, analysts estimate the BBL can corner a 3-5 per cent share of the $18-billion Humira market by FY24-FY25.
IIFL Securities said in a recent note that, “We expect Biologics revenue to increase from $1billion to $1.65 billion in FY25, driven by sales of $300 million, 100million and 200 million from Humira, Aspart and vaccines (respectively). Our estimates assume 3-5 per cent market share for Biocon in Humira by FY24/25.”
Biocon’s Hulio comes at a 5 per cent discount to the current list price of Humira of $6,922/carton. The biosimilar would also be available under another plan at a list price of about 85 per cent below that of Humira.
Analysts said that Biocon’s pricing is similar to Coherus, but Boehringer Ingelheim’s (BI) product is the only interchangeable product so far. Interchangeability implies that the chemist can substitute a Humira prescription with a BI product.
Already, players like Amgen, Coherus Biosciences, BI and Sandoz have launched their biosimilar versions.
Kunal Randeria of Nuvama Research said that Boehringer’s product is the only interchangeable product so far and it expects to be the sole one for at least 12 months.
As such, Biocon’s key products in the US have been gaining market share.
JM Financial noted that Biocon’s Semglee (insulin) market share is around 12 per cent now, while Fulphila (cancer drug) is at 14 per cent and Ogivri (gastric cancer) at 10 per cent.
“The USFDA has accepted BBL’s Corrective and Preventive Action (CAPA) for biosimilar Aspart and they await re-inspection. While the approval is likely in FY24, we believe that they may be delayed for CY24 formulary access. Biocon is confident of gaining market share in Hulio as it saw success in the EU market and has better drug device, citrate-free drug and likely formulary access,” JM Financial said.
